Super Spreader Events

A detailed look at the spread of the Corona Virus during / after Super Spreader Events

Blog Post Date: Aug 10th, 2020

Blog Post Updated: Aug 29th, 2020

The first event is the Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally which will run from Friday, August 7, through Sunday, August 16.

Note: Sturgis is in Meade County, South Dakota. Meade has a population of about 29,000.

Since this is a week long event and most of the visitors are from all over the US, it may be hard to track the spread of the disease. However, we can monitor what happens in Meade county and its surrounding counties a few weeks after the rally.

So, I have taken a snapshot of where things stand at Butte, Custer, Lawrence, Meade, Pennington counties going into the Sturgis rally. You can see it at the Data analytisc site and you can see the daily changes.

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuSuperSpreaders

Cases and Deaths Snapshot on Aug 28th: You can see 100% to 350% weekly growth in cases in all 5 counties

County Total Cases Total Deaths Cases This Week Last Week 2 Weeks Ago Deaths This week Last Week
Butte 41 1 19 4 4 0 0
Custer 104 0 46 22 10 0 0
Lawrence 171 2 88 17 25 1 1
Meade 247 1 120 6 20 0 0
Pennington 1211 33 236 49 63 0 1
Total 1774 37 509 136 104 1 2

Cases and Deaths Snapshot on Aug 22nd: You can see growth in cases in all 5 counties already

County Total Cases Total Deaths Cases This Week Last Week 2 Weeks Ago Deaths This week Last Week
Butte 26 1 7 5 4 0 0
Custer 74 0 35 7 13 0 0
Lawrence 100 1 31 17 25 0 1
Meade 152 1 55 6 20 0 0
Pennington 1028 33 98 49 63 0 1
Total 1380 36 226 84 125 1 2

Cases and Deaths Snapshot on Aug 9th

County Total Cases Total Deaths Cases This Week Last Week 2 Weeks Ago Deaths This week Last Week
Butte 17 1 6 3 3 0 0
Custer 35 0 12 12 0 0 0
Lawrence 55 0 25 25 3 0 0
Meade 94 1 20 20 7 0 0
Pennington 891 32 65 65 58 3 3
Total 1092 34 128 125 71 3 3

Aug 22nd update -- Relevant links to COVID Data Analytics site

Sturgis super spreader data analytics page

Meade, Lawrence, Custer counties broke its cases record on 8/22. Pennington and Butte were close to its previous highs.

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuSuperSpreaders

Sturgis_Counties
Sturgis_Counties

All 5 counties broke its cases record on 8/27. All 5 counties have weekly case growth of 100% to 350%.

Sturgis_Counties_Aug27th
Sturgis_Counties_Aug27th

Case and Death Patterns by State

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvupattern

States, counties setting cases and deaths records each day

South Dakota broke its cases record today (251).

Clearly, the Sturgis Rally has had a very immediate impact on the numbers in South Dakota and in Meade county and the surrounding counties.

You didn't need to be a rocket scientist to predict this. Just not a Kool-aid drinking Trump supporter, like the 450,000 idiotic (and now criminal as they are spreading cases and deaths nationwide) rally attendees or the criminal organizers of the Rally. The rally organizers knew that this would happen and yet the Republicans in South Dakota and Meade county went ahead with it. #NeedlessDeaths

We saw the same immediate impact after the Tulsa Trump rally and the Phoenix (Maricopa county) Trump rally. Both events resulted in a surge in cases and deaths in Oklahoma and Arizona. It also took the life of former Republican Presidential candidate Herman Cain!

Trump and the Republicans never seem to learn from their mistakes as they will now spread the disease and deaths due to it through Schools and Colleges reopening, College sports, NASCAR races etc. etc. These events are taking place in Republican states where the Positivity rate is still much much higher than 5% and cases haven't been declining for 14 days, which was the criteria for safe re-opening as outlined by the CDC. The CDC has now become willing accomplices of the Trump administration in spreading the disease nationwide through all these extremely risky events.

Where could this spread next from South Dakota?

It is quite possible that we will see a surge in cases / deaths in the immediate neighboring states of Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa. I will monitor if these states start appearing in the list of states that set new cases and deaths records in the next couple of weeks. If it does, it will be directly because of the Sturgis super spreader event.

8/24 update: Indiana (a couple of states over from SD) set its cases record (1880) today. Can't be a coincidence. It is spreading everywhere

South_Dakota_Map
South_Dakota_Map

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuRecordCasesStates

South_Dakota_Cases_States_Record
South_Dakota_Cases_States_Record

Indiana_Cases_States_Record
Indiana_Cases_States_Record

Aug 29th Update -- SD and Neighboring states setting cases records

State 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/01 9/02 9/03 9/04 9/05 9/06
SD 251 623
ND 274 333 374
MN 1154
IA 1010 1201 2681*
NE
WY
MT
WI
IL
MO
KS 988 1019
CO
UT
ID
    • Aug 27th entry for IA -- there was some fraud (what a surprise) in the earlier reporting of cases and deaths from the state of IA which they must have fixed.

Widespread fraud in Iowa state COVID Cases and Death Numbers (as is true in every Republican Governed state -- suppress testing and show low fake numbers)

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuRecordDeathsStates

Meade, Lawrence, Custer & 4 other SD counties broke its cases record on 8/22.

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuRecordCasesCounties

South_Dakota_Cases_Counties_Record
South_Dakota_Cases_Counties_Record

8/24 update: Several counties in Kansas and Indiana set their cases record today. It is spreading to all the neigboring states

Kansas_Cases_Counties_Record
Kansas_Cases_Counties_Record
Indiana_Cases_Counties_Record
Indiana_Cases_Counties_Record

8/27 update: Several counties in Iowa and South Dakota set their cases record today. It is spreading to all the neigboring states

Iowa_Cases_Counties_Record
Iowa_Cases_Counties_Record
South_Dakota_Cases_Counties_Record
South_Dakota_Cases_Counties_Record

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuRecordDeathsCounties

Cases and deaths records for each state

You can use these links to see when SD and its neighboring states set their cases and deaths records (before or after Sturgis rally).

-4 Neighboring states set cases records 4-6 days after Sturgis rally -SD broke its cases record on 8/22 (251), ND on 8/20 (274), IA on 8/20 (1010), KS on 8/21 (988)

South_Dakota_Neighboring_States_Records
South_Dakota_Neighboring_States_Records

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuAllCasesStates

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuAllDeathsStates

Details of Cases and deaths by state / county

You can use these links to see what counties in SD are getting hit or how the neighboring states are doing.

-4 Neighboring states set cases records 4-6 days after Sturgis rally -SD broke its cases record on 8/22 (251), ND on 8/20 (274), IA on 8/20 (1010), KS on 8/21 (988)

SD_State_Cases_Records
SD_State_Cases_Records

ND_State_Cases_Records
ND_State_Cases_Records

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvucounty

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuSelectCounty

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuSelectCountyAsTable

Some news a few days after the rally

Sep 2nd

A Minnesota biker who attended the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally has died of covid-19 — the case is among at least 260 cases in 11 states tied directly to the event

Why Sturgis was a really bad idea. Looking at Mobile phone location data a few days after the rally

This visualization was created using anonymized cell phone location data records from the rally, showing where those devices were active leading up to, during, and after the event.

At least seven Covid-19 cases in Nebraska's Panhandle region have been tied to the Sturgis motorcycle rally

Minnesota officials say 15 residents linked to the Sturgis rally have the virus & 1 is hospitalized.

AUg 21st: Today S.D. announced 2 deaths & the most new cases in months.

All it takes is one to start the spread

A worker at a Sturgis tattoo parlor worked five 14-hour shifts while able to transmit COVID-19 to people, the Department of Health announced.

This and the person at the bar in a town full of 460,000 drunks could spread the disease to hundreds of thousands in the next few weeks.

A scary projection of what could happen from a single super spreader event like Sturgis

Not looking good, cases emerging in many states