Blog Post Date: Nov 3rd, 2020
Blog Post Updated: Nov 5th, 2020
Status as of 2 PM
Biden trails by 13.5K in GA, 114K in PA, 77k in NC, leads by 11.5K in NV, 68K in AZ
Estimated number of uncounted votes left, as of 9:30 a.m. ET:
— NPR (@NPR) November 5, 2020
• Georgia: 50,000 uncounted; Trump leads by 18,148
• North Carolina: 348,000; Trump leads by 76,701
• Nevada: 398,000; Biden leads by 7,647
• Pennsylvania: 784,000; Trump leads by 164,418 https://t.co/JGi16yLQUZ
11a. Old school where we are. Approx #ballots to be counted and ballpark % each candidate needs to win. pic.twitter.com/S667qS8Eqz
— John King (@JohnKingCNN) November 5, 2020
T-minus 12 hours until NV decides fate of free world (forget it, he's rolling). More than 100K ballots will start being counted, one county at a time. If rurals are loaded first, Biden's lead will shrink. (Cue freak out if so.) Many more votes in urbans, though.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 5, 2020
See you there!
Trump claims victory and is going to the Supreme Court
Trump and his surrogates are trying to destabilize our government from within and trying to steal the election by claiming democratic voter fraud in the battleground states
(PS) In summary, what the Trump family is now advocating is the creation of fraudulent slates of state electors that do not represent the will of the voters or final vote tallies. It's the most dangerous, anti-democratic tactic ever advocated for in modern U.S. political history. pic.twitter.com/KWLehtpZam
— Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) November 5, 2020
Pennsylvania GOP blocked Gov Tom Wolf from beginning the counting of mail-in votes before the election to avoid what we are seeing now and today they are blaming him for the counting of mail-in votes being late. Such crooks.
— Ricky Davila (@TheRickyDavila) November 5, 2020
Just now: Trump declares victory and announces he is heading to the Supreme Court.
— David Jolly (@DavidJollyFL) November 4, 2020
He is losing. He knows it. And he’s making this as dangerous as possible.
— Ben Rhodes (@brhodes) November 4, 2020
Trump claiming a victory he never won, and saying he will take it to the Supreme Court. This is what dictators do. Stop.
— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) November 4, 2020
Frivolous Lawsuits by a desperate / sore loser
BREAKING: Judge DENIES the Trump campaign's request for emergency relief in Michigan.
— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) November 5, 2020
This is the campaign's second loss in one day.
ICYMI, their defeat in Georgia, at @LawCrimeNews https://t.co/clpvtCk3Nt https://t.co/oUEWFAbEw1
🚨BREAKING: We are intervening to oppose the GOP's latest lawsuit in Pennsylvania challenging Montgomery County’s election procedures.https://t.co/UReV33lN30
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) November 4, 2020
It doesn't help the president's argument to "stop counting the ballots" in GA/PA etc. that his only possible path back in AZ/NV is to...continue counting the ballots.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020
Popular vote (Biden should win by at least 6-8 Million votes)
Joe Biden just broke record for the most votes ever received by a presidential candidate: 69,029,309 and counting. #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/AhrXV5xAbT
— Shannon Watts (@shannonrwatts) November 4, 2020
It also seems clear that while Republicans will pick up House seats, Biden will win an outright majority of the national popular vote and win it by significantly more than Clinton in both raw vote and percentage terms.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 4, 2020
Trump tweet(s) flagged for false information
Twitter is having none of it. pic.twitter.com/JOTTzrSdTs
— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 4, 2020
We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 4, 2020
MI, WI, PA were not allowed to count early votes and now Trump says we shouldn't count the votes
So we’re clear: GOP legislatures prevented MI/WI/PA from starting to count mail-in votes earlier than election night - precisely to give Trump an opening to fight the results. Now some saying those votes shouldn’t be counted at all. Can’t have it both ways. Un-American garbage.
— Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci) November 4, 2020
Reminder that the slow returns in PA, MI and WI are not accidental. Republican politicians in those states took care to make sure that postal ballots would not be counted early as they are in other states. https://t.co/CrfmTuaE88
— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) November 4, 2020
yes. republicans in those states helped engineer precisely this set of circumstances! https://t.co/5OMSy70Ojt
— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) November 4, 2020
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan were not allowed to begin counting ballots before this morning, which is one reason the count is taking a while: https://t.co/nK453ihqAK
— Mike Madden (@MikeMadden) November 4, 2020
Michigan (Biden declared big winner; outside recount territory)
CNN PROJECTION: Joe Biden wins Michigan, reclaiming another "blue wall" state President Trump won in 2016 and narrowing Trump's path to 270 electoral votes https://t.co/ahAuTVs5kN #CNNElection pic.twitter.com/INkHwki02Z
— CNN (@CNN) November 4, 2020
USPS Whistleblower in Michigan Claims Higher-Ups Were Engaging in Voter Fraud https://t.co/YJzSV2xVw6
— James O'Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) November 5, 2020
BREAKING: Judge DENIES the Trump campaign's request for emergency relief in Michigan.
— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) November 5, 2020
This is the campaign's second loss in one day.
ICYMI, their defeat in Georgia, at @LawCrimeNews https://t.co/clpvtCk3Nt https://t.co/oUEWFAbEw1
Pennsylvania (democratic votes are coming in from Philadelphia to counter the red-mirage)
Per @abbydphillip there are 550k votes outstanding in PA. Trump's lead is only 114k now, and Philadelphia, Delaware (Philly suburb) and Allegheny counties still have healthy vote counts outstanding.
— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 5, 2020
Alright, PA Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar says it's likely we could know by TODAY the winner in the state of PA. The outstanding 550K +/- votes are being counted today.
— Abby D. Phillip (@abbydphillip) November 5, 2020
There are 763k early votes still to be counted in Pennsylvania, including big chunks in Philadelphia and Delaware County, the suburb. This is not going to be close at all. I guess the networks don’t want to call it because it puts Biden over.
— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 5, 2020
Biden has won the last 600k ballots counted in Pennsylvania by 40 points, which is much bigger than the 22-point margin he needs the rest of the way out. https://t.co/U39Fdyumub
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2020
In my benchmarks, Biden needed to win Montgomery Co. by 23.0% to carry PA. He's currently up by 25.6%.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020
Biden needed to lose Lebanon Co. by less than 35.0%. He's down there by only 32.1%. Northampton Co. -3.0%, +0.4%.
This is a pretty consistent picture across the state.
Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and the presidency) by a combined 77,744 votes in 2016.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020
At this rate, Biden is on track to finish ahead by more than that in each of Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Although the "Whole Foods revolt" against Trump wasn't as dramatic as we might have expected, it comes through for Biden in Chester Co., PA.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020
Biden now ahead in Chester by 16.5 points w/ 305k ballots counted - way more than enough. Clinton won it by 9.4 points w/ 270k cast.
Another terrific performance for Biden in York Co., PA, where he's losing by 24.9 points w/ 230k ballots counted. In 2016, Clinton lost York by 28.9 points w/ 205k votes cast.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020
At these rates, Biden should finish with a healthy lead in PA.
Remember Butler Co., PA's mail ballot woes? Turns out the county is another terrific performance for Biden. With mail ballots counted, Biden is losing Butler by 32.9 points. Clinton lost it by 36.5 points in 2016.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020
Sen. Bob Casey, who knows PA—he and his father before him have run statewide for decades—says on @MSNBC Biden may win by 100k votes in the end.
— Ken Dilanian (@KenDilanianNBC) November 4, 2020
So two things:
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 4, 2020
1) Biden is well on his way to flipping MI & WI (in addition to AZ & #NE02) and is doing well enough in PA's completed counties to be on track to win there
2) Polls (esp. at district-level) have rarely led us more astray & it's going to take a long time to unpack
There are still 2.2m mail ballots to be counted in PA - about 87% of the total.
— Jonathan Tamari (@JonathanTamari) November 4, 2020
Settle in.
And the 3 largest counties in PA have all counted less than 25% apiece.
— Jonathan Tamari (@JonathanTamari) November 4, 2020
Ohio
Good news out of Ohio: @JenniferBrunner is going to win a Supreme Court seat in #Ohio. And that means @KarlRove lost something important -- gerrymandering in the Buckeye State. That's a HUGE deal.
— Erin McPike (@ErinMcPike) November 4, 2020
Wisconsin (Biden declared winner; He won 130k of 169k mail-in-ballots from Milwaukee)
WATCH: "All of the ballots have indeed been counted," Wisconsin Elections Commission Director Meagan Wolfe says.
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) November 4, 2020
"We're not seeing that there's any counties that haven't posted their results on their websites."
Track latest Wisconsin results here: https://t.co/GrcGGYyeVt pic.twitter.com/CNL50hUTnU
North Carolina
We have some good news for Democrats in North Carolina, where a reporting error by Randolph County is padding Trump by about 30k in our estimate there.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020
They reported both in person (abs one-stop) and absentee mail together, but the needle's still expecting 45k early votes pic.twitter.com/yXc2BAoD2P
Roy Cooper (D) has won the race for governor in North Carolinahttps://t.co/mQDakJT1LR pic.twitter.com/SaEDnDAOLz
— POLITICO (@politico) November 4, 2020
Georgia (NY Times gives Biden a 64% chance to win as of 11 PM EST)
Ossoff will most likely force a runoff. So two runoffs for the 2 GA senate seats.
David Perdue has fallen to 50% of the vote in the race against Democrat Jon @ossoff and thousands of ballots from left-leaning counties remain to be counted, raising the prospects of a second Senate runoff in Georgia that could decide control of the chamber. #gapol #gasen pic.twitter.com/EQlIIoR14o
— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) November 5, 2020
Game changer... https://t.co/dBFKnOZjOG
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020
I could see some Warnock-Perdue voters in the (now fairly likely) Double Georgia Runoff scenario.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2020
If the @AJC's reporting of how many ballots are left in each GA county is accurate (& I add this caveat as there may be a lag in their updates & the state counts), it's hard to see how Ossoff fails to net enough votes to force a runoff.
— Taniel (@Taniel) November 5, 2020
In another sign of what a bright spot GA has become for Dems, it appears #GA07 in suburban ATL might be the site of their only likely pickup of a GOP House seat so far (outside of two NC seats where lines were redrawn).
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2020
A smart Georgian pointed out to me that there's already one Atl exburb where we know most of the votes: Fayette, south of Fulton.
— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) November 4, 2020
Biden losing it by 7.
Abrams lost it by 13
Biden is outdrawing Abrams in most every Atl exurb - Forsyth, Cherokee, Henry, Douglas.
— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) November 4, 2020
NYT needle in GA?https://t.co/dtj6h9jFEx pic.twitter.com/nnNBHHsNs2
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
Arizona (race tightening, FOX may have been too hasty)
Why we haven't called Arizona (even though we usually use AP calls) https://t.co/jxkgpMYVDy
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 5, 2020
BREAKING: Maricopa is now CLOSING due to concerns about unrest from sizeable crowds protesting vote counting per @CNN
— Alexa O'Brien (@alexadobrien) November 5, 2020
Tonight's vote dump in Maricopa was Trump+18, which confirms that the state's going to get a lot tighter. It's not very easy to say whether that's enough for Trump or not, but I'd think it's more than enough to preclude an Arizona call tonight
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 5, 2020
But there's also a batch of outstanding ballots that were *dropped off* on Election Day, instead arriving by mail. Those may be less GOP, which would make it harder for Trump to reach the numbers he needs.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2020
This is potentially interesting in Arizona. What we saw reported earlier tonight in Maricopa Co. were ballots that arrived by mail in the couple of days before the election. Those were quite good for Trump. https://t.co/qjPKDd5Ega
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2020
And we have an update on estimated # of Arizona early ballots left to be processed from some counties:
— Vaughn Hillyard (@VaughnHillyard) November 4, 2020
Gila: ~2300
Graham: ~1100
Greenlee 652
La Paz: 880
Maricopa: At least 250k
Pima: ~92k
Pinal: ~62k
Santa Cruz: ~3k
Yavapai: ~10k
Yuma: ~19k https://t.co/AVEYRMv0VP
WH and Trump campaign sources furious at Fox right now over Arizona call
— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) November 4, 2020
The moment Arizona went BLUE for @JoeBiden 🌊🌊🌊pic.twitter.com/UbTHAq73zi
— Cleavon MD (@Cleavon_MD) November 4, 2020
Nevada (Biden should be the winner)
Biden is up by 11.4K right now in NV.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 5, 2020
Dems are going to win these mail ballots coming in from Election Day and yesterday -- 63K. And they should win them decisively. That leaves 60K provisionals, which have been evenly split.
I see no path left for Trump here.
Biden wins the new votes in Nevada by 14 points, and there's still more late mail and provisionals left. I don't know if anyone will call it on this basis, as it's still fairly close and there's no *hard* data on what's out. But you can still pencil this into the Biden column
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 5, 2020
"Stop the steal" comes the chants from the same geniuses who seem to be missing something called..math.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 5, 2020
If they stop counting right now, Biden wins Nevada. https://t.co/SJoNl2jLpY
This is a pretty good set of news for Democrats in Nevada. It's not going to be called when the margin is this narrow, but you can pencil it in the Biden column for the purpose of gaming out where we're going from here https://t.co/cCly1QnmGU
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020
This is a potential dagger for Trump. Biden winning Washoe by 5 points. Waiting for one more update from Clark, but this is looking bleak for Trump.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2020
Will say something more definitive after Clark posts again. Biden is still going to lose a few thousand more votes in the rurals. https://t.co/6O7RoSgRre
Washoe added some ballots, Biden's lead down just under 10K there. Statewide lead is at 25,000. That Clark update of 80K ballots is going to be big. Dems will be holding their breath the next hour or so. https://t.co/WGcYsGr2qC pic.twitter.com/G3V9BagNjp
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2020
Nebraska-2 (Called for Biden)
If you just go by what ABC News has called (we're on the conservative side tonight)... Biden's win probability would go from 69% to 85% based on NE-2 being called! That one electoral vote makes a huge amount of difference.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
This #NE02 win is huge. Now all Biden has to do is win two of the following three states: WI, MI & PA.
— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) November 4, 2020
Or Biden could win GA and it’s really, really over for Trump. https://t.co/M34N48hBp2
If it does come down to Nebraska-2, I think Biden has to feel OK about that given that upscale Midwest suburbs seem to be some of his stronger results so far tonight. Maybe also drawing live in Maine-2 since he won New Hampshire.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
This rally could be the reason behind the flip
Hundreds of people who attended a Trump rally in Omaha, Nebraska on Tuesday night were left stranded on an airport tarmac in near-freezing temperatures after buses meant to shuttle them to their cars were delayed for hours.https://t.co/mH2HJ9NyQk
— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 28, 2020
Senate Results (flips and closely contested races)
FIRST SENATE SEAT FLIPPED! @MomsDemand gun sense candidate @hickenlooper wins a Senate seat in Colorado!!!! https://t.co/XSH6EfEnyb
— Shannon Watts (@shannonrwatts) November 4, 2020
BREAKING: Fox News has called Colorado’s Senate seat for HICKENLOOPER (D) over GARDNER (R), the first flip of the night.
— Brian Tyler Cohen (@briantylercohen) November 4, 2020
House Results (and flips)
BREAKING: THE Fox News Decision Desk can now project that Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives and expand their majority by at least five seats.
— Lauren Blanchard (@LaurenBlanch12) November 4, 2020
AP calls FL-26 for Republican Carlos Gimenez over Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell. GOP *pickup* in the House.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 4, 2020
🚨 FLIP ALERT! 🚨
— NDRC (@DemRedistrict) November 4, 2020
Congratulations to #FairMaps champion Jeff Pittman (@VotePittman) on flipping Kansas’ Senate District 5, and becoming its newest state senator. pic.twitter.com/t8abvpoeTG
Democrat Deborah Ross wins open seat in North Carolina, flipping seat https://t.co/dJt50GHs7Z pic.twitter.com/EmsHxYXPBD
— The Hill (@thehill) November 4, 2020
Democrat Kathy Manning wins open seat in North Carolina, flipping seat #ElectionNight https://t.co/dqBNh4TIB0 pic.twitter.com/kisLYlmvHm
— The Hill (@thehill) November 4, 2020
Republicans flipped a congressional seat in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Carlos Gimenez defeated Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the 26th Congressional District, the most competitive race in the state. https://t.co/5K1EGl4kpm
— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 4, 2020
VOTE 2020 - Maria Elvira Salazar defeats incumbent Donna Shalala in race for Miami-Dade District 27 congressional seat https://t.co/JrWreg9pBX pic.twitter.com/Wc358ov9Km
— WPLG Local 10 News (@WPLGLocal10) November 4, 2020
BREAKING: Republican Michelle Fischbach wins election to U.S. House in Minnesota's 7th Congressional District, beating incumbent Rep. Collin Peterson. #APracecall at 12:36 a.m. CST. #Election2020 #MNelection https://t.co/lGfinjTqT4
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 4, 2020
BREAKING: Republican Nancy Mace wins election to U.S. House in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District, beating incumbent Rep. Joe Cunningham. #APracecall at 2:04 a.m. EST. #Election2020 #SCelection https://t.co/lGfinjTqT4
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 4, 2020
BREAKING: Republican Yvette Herrell wins election to U.S. House in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, beating incumbent Rep. Xochitl Torres Small. #APracecall at 12:13 a.m. MST. #Election2020 #NMelection https://t.co/lGfinjTqT4
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 4, 2020
Dejoy continues to destroy our democracy by refusing to hand over all mail-in ballots
U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan: “At some point, the postmaster is either going to have to be deposed or appear before me and testify under oath” https://t.co/43zjuY35hI
— Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) November 4, 2020
In a hearing set to begin momentarily, Judge Sullivan plans to question "the apparent lack of compliance" by USPS with his order to sweep postal facilities on Election Day to make sure no ballot was left behind. @CourthouseNews background: https://t.co/Edo9ictuFH
— Megan Mineiro (@MMineiro_CNS) November 4, 2020
🚨BREAKING: New USPS data appears to show a failure to deliver mail ballots from voters across the country on Election Day. U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan will hold a noon hearing over USPS' non-compliance with his order yesterday to rush deliver all remaining mail ballots pic.twitter.com/Zc8J5PEmPf
— John Kruzel (@johnkruzel) November 4, 2020
This is a storyline worth keeping an eye on. Emmet Sullivan is as no nonsense as it gets. https://t.co/E6LfCAKVWo
— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 4, 2020
Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) warned Postmaster General Louis DeJoy that it is a felony to intentionally slow down the mail to affect an election.
— Sarah Reese Jones (@PoliticusSarah) November 3, 2020
https://t.co/Y2nNYEQp1S via @politicususa
It turns out there was election fraud. It was led by Louis DeJoy. There needs to be a federal investigation, and not by Bill Barr's compromised DOJ. Grand jury? Legal eagles, please weigh in! https://t.co/u2nLtmhT4o
— Joy WE VOTED!! WEAR A MASK!! Reid 😷) (@JoyAnnReid) November 4, 2020
USPS failed to deliver 27 percent of mail-in ballots in South Florida: report https://t.co/mm0wN4oSkx
— Cheri Jacobus (@CheriJacobus) November 4, 2020
The only fraud in this election was a sitting admin abusing its power to deliberately thwart votes from being received in order to advantage itself. This has to be addressed, with new laws and stiff penalties if necessary, so that it can never happen again. https://t.co/BIj68yqeZt
— Asha Rangappa (@AshaRangappa_) November 4, 2020